Climate risks are increasing.
The disasters that occurred in the summer of 2026 further highlighted Asia's vulnerability to extreme weather events. In Nepal, the partial collapse of a glacier in the Langtang Lirung area on August 26th caused severe flash floods in Nepal and Tibet. A rapid study published in September concluded that warming due to climate change likely contributed to the destabilization of the glacier, although geological factors also played a role in the disaster. In East Asia, China entered the peak of its flood season in July with warnings of extreme rainfall in the north. The Chinese meteorological agency predicted rainfall in some northern areas could be 20-50% above average, increasing the risk of flash floods, urban flooding, and landslides. Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, data from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre (ASMC) shows that El Niño was clearly present in August, with a drier trend in many areas of Southeast Asia's island regions.
One notable factor this year is the rapid development of El Niño. On September 3rd, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that El Niño had been established and is expected to continue strengthening, with a near 100% probability of persisting until February 2027. Forecasts for the September-November 2026 period indicate that above-average temperatures are likely to occur across much of the world's landmasses, while rainfall patterns could change significantly. For Asia, this risk is particularly noteworthy because the region is both rapidly urbanizing and heavily reliant on agriculture and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme weather events. Fluctuations in rainfall and temperature could impact crop yields, irrigation water availability, and food prices, while lower-income populations often have more limited financial resilience, and businesses face the risk of production and supply chain disruptions.